War and Animal Instinct
Peace and tranquility, health and happiness, fame and fortune are what most of us aspire to and work for, the Constitution of the United States even spells out what the founders considered a vital element in the establishment of the government so many have given their lives defending; …life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
Of course this is all well and good, to “…form a more perfect union…” is a most honorable and human thing to do but, as we can see, it is hard to attain for a couple of reasons. Most influential of those reasons is simply the fact that we human beings are still animals—although calculating, analytical animals—I admit but nevertheless animals with animal instincts. Among those instincts is the compelling drive to survive, so much so that we have an abundance of rules, laws, traditions, religions and customs that for the most part keep us in check while we exercise our right to survive in a civilized way, but barely. Animal survival depends on two things; procreation and establishing who the alpha-dog is. Throughout the last few thousand years the human animal has recognized the need to do this amicably. The example I have in mind is Iran and that countries nuclear ambitions. Ahmadinejad wants desperately to be the alpha-dog and so did President Bush when he was in office. That dogfight between Bush and Ahmadinejad ended in favor of Bush. Iran’s leader knew the US was in control and didn’t advance his cause quite as aggressively but now President Obama enters the fracas determined to communicate equality by lying down and rolling over exposing his vulnerable underside. The predictable outcome from this kind of social work diplomacy is certain to be perceived as weakness on the part of the US and reason for Ahmadinejad to act more brazenly. Did you read the Associated Press article today about Iran digging mass graves in which to bury US troops or that Iran has activated equipment to enrich uranium more efficiently, a move that defied the UN Security Council? Ahmadinejad is showing his teeth, growling and circling the alpha dog waiting for just the right moment to attack. Does this mean that I am thinking war, no it doesn’t. Iran has the upper hand now and will not push to engage the US and our allies in conventional military action, however, they will continue to use the strategy that has guaranteed them the most success; saber-rattling, deception and patience. Right now, as things stand diplomatically and militarily, our hands are tied—we know that, they know that, our enemies know that and so do our allies.
Marvin Wiebener
WORLDWIDE GEOPOLITICAL CHAOS
I do not believe people that forecast the ‘end of the world as we know it’, whether the prediction comes from Biblical prophetic utterances (Armageddon), the Aztec’s or Nostradamus, it makes little difference, no one has the ability to predict the end –whatever your concept of that is. It is certain the world as we know it will change and dramatically so, it is also a certainty Homo sapiens will eventually become extinct here on earth either by our own hand or by the hand of nature but how and when will always remain a mystery.
Now, with that said, I am of the opinion the next generation will encounter a very humbling and even tragic period for the Earth, and all that populate it. One doesn’t need to use their imagination to see it coming; it’s simply a matter of opening our eyes to the mess we’ve made of things.
Who’s at Fault
We can begin by lining up the usual suspects ranging from individuals like Hitler and Hussein to religions, philosophies, sciences, governments, corporations and so on. In other words the question should be who isn’t to blame? Events occurring during the development of mankind have had an accumulation effect. Two hundred-thousand years of human progress (population growth and inventions designed specifically for the convenience of man) has brought us to the brink of disaster for man and a much needed recuperation period for Planet Earth.
I don’t blame early man or woman for inventing the wheel, they were just trying to make life a little easier and they had no idea what consequences (unintended) would arise from that discovery. I do not blame Henry Ford for the millions of deaths and millions of life-changing injuries caused by vehicle accidents resulting from the mechanization of auto manufacturing. I do not blame Bill Gates for the creation and manufacturing of computer software that makes possible the exchange of hideous photos and information around the world as in child pornography, vivid pictures of human executions and a whole lot more. These all fall under the ever present and menacing law of unintended consequences. Every thing we do, every thing we invent, discover or say has unintended consequences, absolutely every thing.
Today, all of us contribute to the Earth’s demise in some way. I don’t know when or how it happened but at some point—actually a series of points (events) that have accumulated over centuries—our leaders (and us too) caused the balance of culture and nature to gyrate out of control into a random spiral, a chaotic black hole right here on terra firma sucking every thing (the good and bad) in and spitting all of its energy out in the form of war, hatred, bigotry, not to mention crime and man-made health hazards.
I’ll illustrate by giving a snap-shot of just one recent day and you can tell me if you see chaos coming. The following is regarding Iran because that is what this blog features for the most part, however, the NEWS BRIEFS could as easily feature the US, or Thailand, Greece, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Central Africa, Iraq, Japan, China, Russia, etc.
NEWS BRIEFS
SUBJECT: Iran
Date: May 13, 2010 (a single day)
The following was collected from just one news site, United Against Nuclear Iran. I’ll paraphrase UANI’s paraphrasing, and if you are in doubt about accuracy check their archives where you can gain access to all of the reports.
Recently the US government prohibited US companies from doing business with Iran as part of the sanctions imposed on Ahmadinejad, the president and Khamenei, the supreme spiritual leader. Of course, when all the US companies pulled out of Iran that cut deep into the companies profits which ultimately added to our unemployment which added to a significant loss of spendable income for Americans not to mention tax revenue for the same government (ours) that imposed the sanctions in the first place. Well, friend, that ain’t all. The United States of America is more openly opposed to Iran having nuclear weapons than anyone else in the world, and why is that? One reason is because Iran’s economy is strong, they have money, oil, natural gas and most other influential nations don’t. Iran wants to sell its petroleum products and China, Russia, and a whole slew of other big and small countries want to buy so they are not nearly as invested in sanctions as is the US. They actually are but they want to keep it a secret, France doesn’t want to make Iran too angry by joining the US in a big way, and instead of ‘foot-stomping’ they only ‘toe-tap’ their ire.
Our government has prohibited US companies from doing (a lucrative) business with Iran, so, do ‘sanctions’ work and who is hurt the most? The US is hamstrung financially by imposing restrictions and that’s not all—our government (the government that prohibited US companies from doing business in Iran) has awarded in recent years $880 million to seven foreign companies involved in Iran’s energy sector. Where are those profits and taxes going? Yes, you are right; they are going to the foreign countries holding the contracts with the US. According to the Bloomberg Report Boeing and Exxon Mobil are lobbying to fend off tightened sanctions against Iran, why? Because it may cost $25 billion in US exports, that’s why. That’s $25 billion Americans need to ward off the severe effects of the global financial crisis. The report goes on to say that Legislation now before Congress would expand a 1996 law penalizing foreign companies that invest in Iran’s oil industry. To me that spells trouble for the United States from a financial perspective. And of course it spells more trouble for most all the other countries too.
CAN WE HANDLE THE TRUTH?
It may sound as though I am against sanctioning Iran and other countries doing business with that country but there is nothing further from the truth. The problem with pushing for everyone (China, Russia, France, Great Britain and others) to sanction Iran—the only way sanctions can be effective—is for the citizens of the US to be willing to embrace REAL austerity, and I mean R-E-A-L austerity. Can you see the turbulence brewing? I know we are NOT Thailand or Greece but, nevertheless, what is happening there can happen here.
RUSSIAN RHETORIC
You might recall that I am paraphrasing major news reports from just one day in May to illustrate my point that drastic changes are on the way. On that same day (May 13, 2010) Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the United States and other Western nations against imposing unilateral sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, Interfax reported. What next?!
Making a Point
I did not think it would be a mistake to take a few weeks away from posting to this blog and I was right. Scanning through news about Iran and her president Ahmadinejad I find the same or nearly the same banter taking place now as was making news six weeks ago. The word game continues and I suppose that is okay as long as President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton don’t blink. As I’ve mentioned in previous articles we’ve already taken a weaker stand by the mere fact the US continues to move its line-in-the-sand back not forward. The AP reported two weeks ago that Sec’y Clinton vowed the Obama administration will not accept a nuclear armed Iran and is working on sanctions “that will bite”. Just how many ways and how many times will the US make threats before actually doing something. Any child psychologist will tell parents not to threaten unless you are willing to back it up. It’s not just good child psychology it is also common sense. Some time in the near future the US will need to make a serious point and the longer we wait the more serious the point will have to be.
Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
Several issues regarding Iran have come to our attention lately that are worthy of further deliberation, here are just a few.
A word of explanation: When I use the word ‘Iran’ I am not speaking of the general population of hard working men and women who, like Americans, prefer peace over war and prosperity over poverty. It is the government influenced by a theocracy and a renegade, out of control group of fanatical henchmen—the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—of which I speak.
Recently I have written that Iran and its proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas) are a growing threat not only to the Persian Gulf states but to the Middle-East in general and to Southwest Asia. Iran’s menace spreads in not-so-subtle ways to other countries as well, most notably Russia, Great Britain, the US and the country they are really after, Israel. Iran stands tall in defense of the Palestinians which in turn grants them favor with others who share that passion explicitly (Syria) and secretly (Saudi Arabia).
The complexities of what is known as the Islamic Revolution (http://iranchamber.com/history/islamic_revolution) are as cosmic as stars in the Universe. Iran wants it’s dealings to be multifarious and convoluted so that their scurrilous activities remain mysterious. This approach to governmental management is a result of deliberate ambiguity, and they are quite good at it. All of that bound tightly by a culture of secrecy has resulted in a formidable force and to think—they do not yet have nuclear weapons. Does this mean that when Iran gets the bomb they will take over the world? No. The bomb issue is merely a symbol of pride to the Iranians. They want it just so they can join the elite group of countries who own one or more. Iran’s weapon of choice will be the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, an act that will bring about political and financial problems of a magnitude modern America has never faced.
Marvin Wiebener
Eight Years and Still Counting
We all know what today marks, the worst of the worst sums it up for me. A tragedy beyond comprehension and a horrendous awakening for our beloved USA. As we reflect on 9/11/2001, the heros of flight 93, the innocent non-combatants, first responders and staff at the Pentagon others around the world are secretly, and in some cases flagrantly, celebrating that event. It isn't over.
This morning I've read synopsis' of recent stories featured in The Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, The New York Times to name a few that should concern us as a nation. In essence I've learned that Iran has some influence over Iraqi leadership, and that Iran now has enough nuclear fuel to make a bomb. The WSJ said UN officials have finally received the long-awaited package of proposals from Tehran to restart negotiations over its nuclear program, however, according to those who've reviewed the 10 page document say it ignores certain critical elements. Other stories report that NATO forces uncovered weapons recently in Afghanistan made by Iran. We've known all along Iran is supplying weaponry to the Taliban as well as Hezbollah and Hamas.
In a piece written by John Duffey, a recognized Homeland Security consultant from Atlanta, titled Venezuela and Iran sign agreements aimed at evading UN Sanctions. What a surprise (my words not Mr. Duffey's). Duffey also writes a great article about Chavez's relationship with Russian leaders. That new friendship paves the way for import and export trade. You might be asking yourself what the two nations are importing and exporting, then again you might not because down deep you know. Yes, you're right, oil for weapons. Of course Chavez needs these weapons to prevent the US from spreading its filthy imperialism south of the Panama canal. I could also talk a bit about how Syria and China fits in here but by now, hopefully, you've done your own research and you know as much if not more than me about it. I'm not an alarmist, more of a pragmatist and I believe its easy for all of us to see the puzzle pieces fitting together and a pretty picture it isn't. Now that the US has been labelled weak or if not weak at least unstable by those that hate us, what will President Obama do? Diplomacy works well when opponents are basically reasonable, but when one opponent is reasonable and the other hates you and wants desperately to see you die or fail--at the very least, diplomacy has little effect. As a matter of fact diplomacy can, under certain circumstances, work against the reasonable opponent. How? By buying time for a sucker punch. By delaying negotiations until the unreasonable opponent has a plan to bring the reasonable opponent down. Maybe a weapon, like some kind of nuclear device, maybe.
Ahmadinejad the Predictable
Keeping track of Ahmadinejad and his plans for a nuclear armed Iran has been both enlightening and predictable. How many times have we read headlines quoting A-jad saying, “Iran’s nuclear activities are geared solely toward generating electricity.” One thing I’ve learned over the short 66 years I have been alive is that if you say something enough times, no matter how ludicrous, it becomes a fact to some. Think Hitler, you can’t tell me that all his followers were fire-breathing, psychopathic monsters, no you can’t. Those men that opted to become monsters themselves did so after hearing Adolph proclaim in hundreds of speeches that he—and his faithful followers—were of a superior race. They heard that trash long enough to buy it. That’s what A-jad is hoping for now, that the community of leaders within the IAEA will begin to believe him. He is even using old and overused transparent rhetoric accusing the US, and allies, of forging documents that supposedly prove Iran is enriching uranium far beyond what is needed to produce electricity. Opponents of the certainty Iran has a secret A-bomb program going on somewhere in the high desert keep calling everyone’s attention to the US mess in Iraq. We were certain weapons of mass destruction were being made and stockpiled. Our downsized intelligence gathering agencies did not have a good handle on that certainty and it cost America dearly in credibility. Now, there’s reason to not trust what the US is telling the world and A-jad is capitalizing on that.
According to a recent story in Foreign Policy magazines morning brief A-jad is still lambasting Mousavi, the opposition leader, and his followers. Even the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told Ahmadinejad to be open to benevolent criticism. But being open is not the way of psychopaths (Hitler) nor extremists (A-jad). Being open is a sign of weakness to both, whether it is or isn’t. The fact is the Hitler’s and Ahmadinejad’s believe it. Their jobs are to convince others and, unfortunately, they do far too often.
Religion and Politics in Iran
I’m not an expert in these matters but I think I know enough to say that religion and politics don’t mix well in Iran. Cooperation between the two is an illusion, an illusion the people of that country realize is getting them no where fast. Iran was on its way to becoming a democracy (sort of) during the Shah’s US backed reign. Of course the Shah—Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi—had his problems with the religious right because of his White Revolution (visit White Revolution in Wikipedia—very interesting) that, among other things, extended suffrage to women, modernized the nation and recognized the sovereignty of Israel, a no-no for any Muslim nation.
Modernization in Iran was seen by Shi’a clergy as secularization and they began withdrawing support for the Shah. In 1979 a revolution occurred that brought to power the Ayatollah Khomeini and his rule by the Supreme Jurist. Many Iranian citizens were opposed to the return of theocracy but knew better than to complain. Religious zealots remember, have ways of bringing the wrath of God to bear when needed to bring about unquestioned compliance, or so those zealots say. I became acquainted with an Iranian family that was able to escape the Ayatollah’s Supreme Jurist rule in 1982. A well-to-do family, the result of an education and hard work, eventually made their way to Tulsa, OK where we met. The patriarch and his wife were in their seventies, both were ill, and they were broke. The Supreme Jurist wouldn’t allow them to leave Iran to seek medical assistance with any thing but the cloths on their backs. The families home, jobs, and retirement fund were lost, never to be retrieved. The good news is that Americans—many were Iranian themselves—helped this family get what they needed and the bad news, of course, is they could never return to their beloved Iran.
A product of the 70’s revolution in Iran was Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, now into his second term as Iran’s blowhard president. Strange indeed how Ahmadinejad began his ascent because of a cleric’s government take over in 1979, a puppet groomed by theocracy to lead a country back into the dark ages and now theocracy and Ahmadinejad are both suffering a significant loss of respect and power.
Jon Meacham, in a Newsweek editorial, wrote; In an imperfect world there will never be a complete end to theocracy any more than there will be a complete end to tyranny. Power will ebb and flow, regimes come and go. But in the main, history’s path leads to more liberty, not less.
Another Step Toward
Last Wednesday Iran’s parliament speaker denied allegations that protesters, arrested after disputing the election, were raped, beaten and even murdered by jailers. Later Iran put a French woman and two embassy staffers on trial for post-election protests. According to the AP Iranian parliament members condemned the US, Britain and France for meddling in the country’s affairs. More recently Iran has ‘taken’ three US citizens they found hiking near the Iran, Iraq boarder into custody—for who knows what trumped up charge—and moved them to Teheran to be likely used as pawns, according to ABC News. Now there is an article in the LA Times that suggests Iran’s well-connected parliament Speaker Ali Larijani telephoned Mousavi the evening of the election to congratulate him on his victory. The Times article said that he new Mousavi won because Rajanews reported Larijani had access to firsthand election results.
Watch the disintegration of a government unfold before your very eyes. What will the outcome be? Will Iran recover quickly or will the country sink further into disorganization? Is this set of circumstances good for the country, the middle-east, the world? And to top it off the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was heard saying a military strike could disrupt Iran’s nuclear arms program. Yes it would.
You know that things will get worse before it gets better.
IRAN’S NEXT MOVE
Iran has played its last card. That is, Ahmadinejad has been re-elected president and Khamenei has exercised his authority by sanctioning the election. Two events everyone knows, without a doubt, are as authoritatively empty as America’s bank account. Everything originating from Iran’s leadership that follows will be seen for what it is, baseless. The Guardian Council and all the president’s men, at least the ones still around, will continue the theatrics even though the curtain has fallen. Acting the role of tough man—Ahmadinejad, and holy man—Khamenei will represent little more than an off, off Broadway play to the citizens of Iran and the rest of the world. Both men will be powerless and their influence will dwindle to nothing. If smart Khamenei and Ahmadinejad will keep their heads down, try not to aggravate other Iranian people, the Middle East and the US. In other words they should just play it safe until able to move from the spot light to lamp light. However, my hunch is both are a bit egomaniacal and that character flaw will prevent them from doing the wise thing which would be to leave their respective offices without further blemish to their celebrity. Let’s hope they don’t pick the road more often traveled by individuals of this persuasion and try to force the opposition into submission.
The most prudent thing to do with Iran for the moment is to leave them alone and see if more rational, less ideological voices can be heard and listened too. For more rational, less ideological voices to be heard Israel must not strike just yet. Instead, the world—including Israel—should give the rational thinkers’ time to make the regime change on its own, without outside interference. That statement needs explaining. Iran should be given time, true. The time must be made clear and the consequences should be made clear also. The time keeper, whoever that is, should not be specific about the consequences only that there will be a penalty to pay. If Ahmadinejad fails to encourage rational thought, that would include stopping nuclear enrichment, then Israel or the US or both should take out a nuclear plant.
A Pragmatic Approach to Iran’s Nuclear Capability
There are numerous reports, some conflicting, that Iran is only six months away from being ready to test an A-bomb. That may be true but even if it isn’t everyone knows they are headed in that direction.
From a pragmatist’s point of view—if the above is true and Ahmadinejad carries out the threat he made to the world regarding Israel’s nuclear extinction—this is how it would look. According to a recent article in The National Post destruction would be demonic and in turn could trigger a worldwide economic collapse. Take just a few seconds and imagine what the US healthcare system would look like then. Think about pension plans and social security; think about food supplies, energy supplies. The list grows like Pinocchio’s nose. Oh, I forgot to mention what Washington DC’s Center for Strategic and International Studies concluded about such an event. If Iran lobbed a relatively small 100-kiloton nuke at Israel and Israel returned a lob of its own from just some of its 200 (much more powerful bombs) the Center estimates, at the low end, sixteen million deaths within three weeks. The deterrent of mutually assured destruction only works when the folks who have their fingers on the red button are not quite ready to meet their maker. On the other hand those button pushers expecting a harem of virgins awaiting them might be motivated to expedite the event.
According to AFP report carried on United Against Nuclear Iran’s website Republican Senators Jon Kyl, John McCain; Independent Joseph Lieberman; and Dem Senator Evan Bayh urged Obama to prepare sanctions targeting the Central Bank of Iran in the event of diplomatic stalemate. Remember, Obama offered his hand to Ahmadinejad in an effort to solve the nuke matter diplomatically. Many folks, this blogger included, had doubts the overture would work. President Obama, thinking he was the new face of America, offered his open hand to prevent ‘a closed fist’ approach later. Sanctions aren’t likely to work either. So, what’s next?