If Diplomacy Fails
Disorder and confusion seem accurate descriptive words when describing what is going on in and around Iran these days. But those terms don’t necessarily apply to that country alone. Half of the world—those countries with a vested interest in what’s going on there—are just as susceptible to the disarray.
According to a NYT report dated June 14, 2010 Senator McCain (who I am a fan of) called on the US to support regime change in Tehran, saying the UN sanctions are ‘inadequate’ and that it is unrealistic to expect the current government (Ahmadinejad/Khamenei and the IRGC) to stop pursuing nuclear weapons, supporting terrorism and cracking down on its own people.
Is there anyone in any of the pseudo or semi civilized countries around the globe that doesn’t know the UN sanctions are inadequate? And that it is unrealistic to expect… All this talk is wearing me down and personally I am so far removed from all that is going on regarding nukes and Iran that I can’t imagine what a burden it is to all who are immersed in the fray all day everyday. The problem lies in how we—the good guys, the naïve guys and the scared guys—respond to Iran’s slight-of-hand, shuck-and-jive, smoke-and-mirror approach to negotiations. All of us together—The US, China, Russia, GB, France—can not proffer a plan acceptable to the Islamic Republic that’s in turn acceptable to the participating countries. After a while everyone gets tired of the rhetoric and lack of success and just wants to go out for a drink or round of golf. In the meantime the citizens of Iran are between a rock and a hard place, suffering the consequences of their leader’s errant ways while the IRGC gets closer and closer to building a bomb.
I have a question, just curious; what would be the outcome, the price some country would pay in aftermath consequences if that country slapped Ahmadinejad with missiles through the front door of two or three nuclear enrichment facilities? We know the global uproar would be deafening but like everything else the hue and cry would be short lived. Of course there would be loss of life and, of course, there would be anti-US or GB or Israeli sentiment floating about and it would take time to recover diplomatically. However, the rhetoric used to chastise that government would most likely be in the form of an artificial rebuke to be documented within UN records. No government lashing out at the country responsible for the missiles would actually mean what they say. The ulterior message on the other hand would be tacit approval.
Now, all that country—the one willing to strike the enrichment facilities—has to do is make sure Iran is in fact enriching uranium to weapons grade and exactly where they are doing it. When it comes to aggression there is no room for error, there will be errors enough even if the strike is absolutely perfect.
Marvin Wiebener
A Pragmatic Approach to Iran’s Nuclear Capability
There are numerous reports, some conflicting, that Iran is only six months away from being ready to test an A-bomb. That may be true but even if it isn’t everyone knows they are headed in that direction.
From a pragmatist’s point of view—if the above is true and Ahmadinejad carries out the threat he made to the world regarding Israel’s nuclear extinction—this is how it would look. According to a recent article in The National Post destruction would be demonic and in turn could trigger a worldwide economic collapse. Take just a few seconds and imagine what the US healthcare system would look like then. Think about pension plans and social security; think about food supplies, energy supplies. The list grows like Pinocchio’s nose. Oh, I forgot to mention what Washington DC’s Center for Strategic and International Studies concluded about such an event. If Iran lobbed a relatively small 100-kiloton nuke at Israel and Israel returned a lob of its own from just some of its 200 (much more powerful bombs) the Center estimates, at the low end, sixteen million deaths within three weeks. The deterrent of mutually assured destruction only works when the folks who have their fingers on the red button are not quite ready to meet their maker. On the other hand those button pushers expecting a harem of virgins awaiting them might be motivated to expedite the event.
According to AFP report carried on United Against Nuclear Iran’s website Republican Senators Jon Kyl, John McCain; Independent Joseph Lieberman; and Dem Senator Evan Bayh urged Obama to prepare sanctions targeting the Central Bank of Iran in the event of diplomatic stalemate. Remember, Obama offered his hand to Ahmadinejad in an effort to solve the nuke matter diplomatically. Many folks, this blogger included, had doubts the overture would work. President Obama, thinking he was the new face of America, offered his open hand to prevent ‘a closed fist’ approach later. Sanctions aren’t likely to work either. So, what’s next?